AN INDEPENDENT POLLSTER, OR- WHAT WAS I THINKING??

Posted on May 11, 2012 by

As I have said before, I think political polls are all but worthless as a true indicator of the real intentions of American voters this election cycle. The vast majority of polls are done by phone, or online- by those methods alone, you are missing at least 30% of Americans in general, and most likely another 50% . Here`s my reasoning -
1 in 5 Americans are on welfare, there`s 20% that have nothing else to do than play online(high speed internet is a right, doncha know) and talk on their free cell phone, well, they are not gonna vote out the crew that sends the checks, food, phones and rent/utility payments. Now that we`ve accounted for all the Democrat supporters…….
Of the other 80%, 20% (the real unemployment number) are too poor to have phones or internet, not to mention they are out looking for work and don`t hear the phone ring if they do have one. The 59% that remain are working all day or night, raising ,educating and trying to instill those ethics in their kids. (so that when SS collapses, they can live with them)
You`ll notice that leaves 1%, those are the ones that have caused all this misery (just ask ANY “occupier) they keep all the money, give all the good jobs to their friends, take vacations out of the Country and kill puppies. (they also donate almost exclusively to democrats, but if you say that out loud, you will be outed – as a puppy)
I have conducted my own poll, the results have been verified by the 2010 mid term elections.
I asked 50 people in an unemployment office who they thought would be elected President, Obama or Romney, 48 dropped to their knee`s and with tear streaked faces, said ” anyone, oh God, anyone but Obama, the other two said they lived behind the building and would vote for whoever keeps the checks for alcoholism as a disability coming.
I then went to a union hall and as I began to ask the same question, I only got as far as “will you vote for Obama, or Romn..” at that point someone yelled “get him, he`s wearing a don`t tread on me pin” ..from Wisconsin!!!!”
As soon as the casts are off, I`ll publish my findings.

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Romney Reaches 50 Percent In Latest Poll; Some Say Landslide Victory Inevitable

Posted on May 11, 2012 by

A bad economy and growing distrusts on Obama’s ability to turn the tide is giving Romney an early boost over Obama, which will likely help in fundraising and allow Romney more freedom to choose his VP carefully.

Rasmussen reports

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Mitt Romney earning 50% of the vote and President Obama attracting 43% support. Four percent (4%) would vote for a third party candidate, while another three percent (3%) are undecided.

[...]

Thirty-seven percent (37%) give the president good or excellent marks for his handling of the economy. Forty-eight percent (48%) say he’s doing a poor job. Consumer confidence has slipped four points since last week’s government report on job creation and unemployment. The number who believe their personal finances are getting better slipped from 30% a week ago to 28% today. The number who fear their finances are getting worse increased from 43% before the jobs report to 47% today.

Dick Morris suggests that Obama is headed towards a landslide defeat. While polls are important, Morris says that right kind of polls mean much more. He points to likely voters as a true indicator. Morris notes that Romney lead 48-43, but Romney’s number has already increased since Morris did published his analysis.

If the election were held today, Mitt Romney would win by a landslide.The published polls reflect a close race for two reasons:

1. They poll only registered voters, not likely voters. Rasmussen is the only pollster who tests likely voters, and his latest tracking poll has Romney ahead by 48-43.2. As discussed in previous columns, a study of the undecided voters in the past eight elections in which incumbents sought a second term as president reveals that only Bush-43 gained any of the undecided vote. Johnson in ’64, Nixon in ’72, Ford in ’76, Carter in ’80, Reagan in ’84, Bush in ’92 and Clinton in ’96 all failed to pick up a single undecided vote.

So when polls show President Obama at 45 percent of the vote, they are really reflecting a likely 55-45 Romney victory, at the very least.

[...]

Over the period of May 4-6, I completed a poll of 400 likely voters in Michigan and found Romney leading by 45-43! And Michigan is one of the most pro-Democrat of the swing states.

[...]

If the election were held today, Obama would lose by at least 10 points and would carry only about a dozen states with fewer than 150 electoral votes.

Posted in American Politics | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

The Republic Has Been Saved. Romney Forced To Apologize For High School Pranks

Posted on May 11, 2012 by

Ladies and gentlemen, it has come down to this. Romney is being vetted so thoroughly that he must account for his actions during high school.

Sleep well children, the media has your back. And remember nobody likes a bully.

Posted in American Politics | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Let’s Get Going Today With ‘Whipping Post’

Posted on May 10, 2012 by

Posted in Casual | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

NOW THE PRESIDENT IS ASKING AMERICANS?

Posted on May 9, 2012 by

President Obama has finally taken a break from governing and reluctantly begun his re-election campaign – I`ll wait for the laughter to die down.

I watched the new re-election campaign ad this morning, it showed the President asking Americans to stick with him, asked for their continued support – he`s asking for your vote.

This is a new concept for this President, his time in office has been dominated by TELLING us what he was going to do – and then doing it, with no regard for established law, or when majorities of citizens loudly said NO!

I don`t recall this President asking our opinion about where and to who, the hundreds of billions of stimulus tax dollars went, I don`t recall this president asking Americans if it was sound policy to first rush through 500 million to Solyndra, then go around established contract law and let private investors (his backers) step in front of the taxpayers for any repayment. ( taxpayers lost all of the 500 million)

I don`t recall this President asking Americans if it was o.k. to not only disregard bankruptcy procedures and bail out two auto companies, but then give a large percentage of those companies to union control, (the people that caused the demise of the companies to begin with) nor do I recall his asking our thoughts about deciding which PRIVATE OWNED dealerships would simply no longer be in business.

I don`t recall Obama asking Americans if it was o.k. to decide, on the weight of HIS determination alone, if legislation duly passed into law by Congress and Presidential signature, was Constitutional – Obama alone “deemed” the DOMA unconstitutional and instructed his AG to not enforce it.

I don`t recall this President asking Americans if it was good energy policy, at a time of extreme fiscal problems and very high unemployment, to aggressively enact regulations that would result in less available energy due to plant closure, (…under my plan, energy costs would necessarily skyrocket..)   while at the same time, giving BILLIONS to foreign countries for their ability to drill for oil in the same places and at the same depths of water that he would not allow American interests to operate.

This President has consistently TOLD the American people what he will do and when we, as a people have said no, he simply has TOLD us we did`nt understand him clearly. Only now does he ASK us for something – he`s asking for four more years to TELL us what`s best for us and the Republic, only this time he will be unencumbered by having to ask us for anything, or answer to us for anything – no re-election to worry about this time around.

Of course, there was one other person he asked for something – he asked the Russian Presidents towel boy, Medvedev, to PLEASE tell Vladimir that he will have “more flexibility” after the election…….

Vote wisely, both Presidential and Congressional – the Country you save may be your CHILDREN`S.

Posted in American Politics, Opinion | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Putin Says Russia Is a Force, Will Stand Up for Itself

Posted on May 9, 2012 by

Associated Press | Jim Heintz

Speaking to thousands of soldiers at the annual Red Square military parade, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Wednesday that the country is a force for world security and that Russia will stand up for its positions.

Putin’s speech, two days after his inauguration for a third term in the Kremlin, came less than a week after the nation’s military chief of staff warned that Russia would consider pre-emptive strikes, if a dispute with the United States over a Europe-based missile defense system worsens.

Russia vehemently opposes the planned placement of radars and missile interceptors in Romania and Poland, saying they would undermine Russia’s nuclear deterrent. The United States says the system is needed to protect against potential missile attacks by Iran and that the installations could not act against Russian missiles.

Putin did not mention any country specifically in his speech Wednesday, but he said: "Russia consistently conducts its policy for strengthening security in the world, and we have the great moral right to fundamentally and insistently stand up for our position."

Remember in Romney was criticized for claiming that Russia was our number one geopolitical foe? His remarks were made shortly after President Obama’s open-mic gaffe. I seconded Romney’s claim, with hard facts to consider.

  • Russia is the main oil and natural gas supplier in Europe
  • Russia deals in about 2 percent of the global commerce and is currently the largest country outside the World Trade Organization.
  • According to the US Treasury Department, Russia holds 30 percent of its reserves in U.S. Treasuries
  • As recently as 2009, Russia refused its own entry into the WTO over objections that its Custom Union partners, Belorussia and Kazakhstan, be tied to Russia’s accession.
  • In 2007 Russia canceled the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty and revved up their own military posture on the western border.
  • Russia’s leaders have given up on becoming part of the West and have started creating their own Moscow-centered system.
  • Russia is willing to spend an estimated $600 to 700 billion over ten years to move away from its soviet era weaponry.
  • Russia has steadily veered towards reimperialization, struggles with implementing a market economy, shown no use for political pluralism, and autocratic control from the Kremlin increases each year, with each passing election.
Posted in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Lugar’s Defeat Shows Tea Party’s Decline Was Greatly Exaggerated

Posted on May 9, 2012 by

The GOP Senate race in Indiana wasn’t even close. Not only was Richard Lugar dismissed from office, he was booed out of town as Richard Mourdock 20 point victory suggests.This outcome suggest that many Americans are taking serious our debt crisis and a real desire for balanced, pro-growth policies. And it doesn’t look to stop there as Tea Party leaders and conservatives are targeting Utah and Texas and stack the Senate with limited government advocates.

This strategy has always been the bread and butter approach for political activists, especially with the growing independence of the executive branch. Empower the House and the Senate with the mandate, and they can keep a president in check.

Phillip Klein | Beltway Confidential

Mourdock’s victory not only means that this particular Senate seat is likely to be more conservative (assuming he goes on to win the general election in this traditionally red state), but it also puts Republican Senators everywhere on notice that no seat is safe anywhere in the country. Any elected Republican that doesn’t pursue a small government agenda once in office risks suffering the same fate as Lugar. Had Lugar hung on, then a lot of people would have dismissed the Tea Party as a passing fad from 2010. But now it’s clear that the movement has been underestimated once again. Tea Partiers have a lot more staying power than skeptics expected.

With the Republican presidential nomination going to the ideologically malleable Mitt Romney, supporters of limited government have recognized that their best hope for advancing the conservative agenda rests on the ability to elect as many principled conservatives to Congress as possible. That is, lawmakers who will be willing to fight for smaller government even if it means standing up to a president of their own party. The more victories the Tea Party racks up, the greater the chance that Romney will be forced to govern as a limited government conservative if elected, even if his natural inclination is to migrate to the left.

Posted in American Politics | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Official: North Carolina Bands Same Sex Marriage

Posted on May 9, 2012 by

North Carolina is the latest state among dozens — 31 to be exact — to ban same-sex marriage within its borders. The final numbers after all the counties closed were 61 percent to 39 percent in favor of Amendment One. The major blocs that backed the ban were Republicans and blacks. A potent combination when in agreement.

Same-sex marriage was already illegal in the state but the vote moved to make the measure permanent as a state constitutional amendment. The most controversial part of the amendment is the banning of civil unions and domestic partnerships for gay or straight couples. Those who practice family law say it could have unintended consequences.

The Amendment will make it increasingly harder to be changed in the future. It was a strategy by the state to prevent federal encroachment and to defend the DOMA as a states right issue. Not unlike the other 29 states that have clearly decided marriage is to be a preserved institution between one man and one woman despite what national polls say.

Posted in American Politics, American Society | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Pentagon Federal Employees Will Not Feel Cuts

Posted on May 8, 2012 by

Federal employees who were fearing cutbacks to the Pentagon budget can rest easy. The cuts will only effect things like weapons, planes, ships and military service members. Keeping nearly 1 million federal workers whose combined benefits greatly exceed $100,000 dollars annually is cheaper — or safer.

The Pentagon’s civilian workforce, which expanded dramatically during President Obama’s first three years, is not facing any significant reductions even as the Defense Department is slashing ground troops by more than 10 percent, retiring ships and combat planes, and putting off the purchases of some new weapons.President Bush’s last budget, for fiscal 2009, pegged Defense Department civilians at 739,000, according to the department’s latest “Green Book” budget document on total spending.

This year, the number of civilians sits at 801,000, an increase of 62,000 personnel, or 8 percent; it is expected to decline by 1 percent next year.

Some defense analysts say this was not supposed to happen.

But it did….

Posted in Military, National Defense | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

More On the Electoral Ceiling in 2012

Posted on May 8, 2012 by

I wrote recently about the supposed electoral ceiling Romney will be facing. It was an idea put forth by Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post. There wasn’t necessarily anything wrong with his hypothesis because when trying to determining election outcome, all we have are trends, data, and current polling. You can get bogged down considering all the variables. My own conclusion was to say that each candidate were both going to have low electoral ceilings by virtue of the political climate and what will likely be a very competitive race. I suggested that neither candidate is likely to reach 300 electoral votes.

… historical examination is in a lot of cases overstated just as the temptation to declare political realignment is. Right after 2008, that seemed to be the forgone conclusion, though political realignment in favor of the Democrats was hardly a universal idea, only to see it all disappear in congressional and state elections two years later. The other side of the coin is to declare Obama all but defeated if we use historical data to judge his chances for reelection considering the economy and the nation’s mood. That, too, is somewhat overstated if we look at current polls. Both parties are equally strong nationally, and like always, will fight it out over a few swing states. That point is the key — the bellwether states that will decide the election. When the mood in the country is ripe for change, these swing states are not as ideologically locked down as the solid blue or red states are accordingly. Though recent demographics look to be having a strong influence in states like Nevada, New Mexico, and certainly Colorado, citing a locked-in ceiling as a disadvantage for Romney is premature and probably false.

It is only an assumption. We cannot account for large swings in either direction.

At any rate, Sean Trende has delved into the theory that Romney is already at a large disadvantage on electoral votes. He argues for caution and warns against relying too much on historical trends.

Cillizza and Balz echo Ron Brownstein, who has referred to a “blue wall” — those states that have voted for Democrats in five straight elections. Taken together, they add up to 242 electoral votes, which would suggest a ceiling for Mitt Romney of 296 electoral votes.

While the facts recited here are correct, the conclusions are questionable. As Harry Enten demonstrated a few weeks ago, it is dangerous to rely on “rules” from previous elections, especially when there are so few observations; the conclusions being drawn are based upon five elections. There are multiple problems here. We might start by asking: Why limit ourselves to the past five elections? It’s true that Republicans haven’t won, say, Pennsylvania since 1988, but I don’t think it’s any more salient than the fact that Republicans have won Pennsylvania in one of the six previous elections, or that Obama managed to eke out a win in Indiana during the Democrats’ perfect storm of 2008.

Recall that political scientists published peer-reviewed articles in the late ‘80s and early 90s regarding the Republicans’ “lock” on the Electoral College based upon the Republicans’ electoral dominance in nine of ten elections from 1952 through 1988. Of course, they saw the pattern broken in the following election. Awarding the Democrats a “near-lock” on the Electoral College today based upon half as many observations is an even riskier venture.

Here is where we agree almost entirely.

In which of these years would we expect the Republicans to win states that leaned Democrat by more than a point or two? The answer is almost certainly “none.” In other words, the “big blue wall” is merely a construct of how the coin flips have landed the past five cycles, not an intrinsic feature of our politics. So what about this year? It really remains to be seen. The signs so far are that this year won’t be like 1996 or 2008. It also doesn’t seem likely to be 1980, absent a spectacular collapse in Europe.

The most likely scenario is somewhere between 2004 and 1992 — but in reverse, with a three-to-four point Democratic win and a similarly sized Republican win representing the poles (again, under roughly current conditions). But this is an important distinction.

Posted in American Politics | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

New Poll Shows Romney Momentum; Approaching 50 Percent

Posted on May 8, 2012 by

Romney vs. Obama - May 8, 2012

Rasmussen | The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney earning 49% of the vote and President Obama attracting 44% support.

Romney has had the advantage on six of the last 12 days, and Obama has held the edge six times. It remains to be seen whether today’s results represent a lasting change or are merely statistical noise. Romney’s support has remained within three points of 46% every day for more than two months. Obama’s numbers have stayed within two points of 45% every day for nearly two months. See tracking history.

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Will Obama Fully ‘Evolve’ on Gay Marriage? Not If He Watches North Carolina.

Posted on May 8, 2012 by

President Obama has stated several times that he is evolving on same-sex marriage. What exactly that means is anyone’s guess. Mine is that he probably doesn’t care either way and when convenient to support he will. If it looks damaging, he won’t. So form him to say he is evolving makes him appear as a progressive thinker because progressives love to hear that kind of stuff.

If you don’t already know that North Carolina is a swing state you should bang your head against a wall. The state holds 15 electoral votes and is traditionally right-leaning. Before the 2008 election, North Carolina voted Republican every election year since 1980. President Obama cannot afford to lose it during this election.

Today, North Carolina will decide once and for all on the status of the institution of marriage through a state constitutional amendment. According to recent polling, the voters of North Carolina will deliver a large majority vote in favor of traditional marriage — being between one man and one woman. That is not surprising because almost every state that has decided through the ballot have sought to uphold the traditional idea of marriage.

Several members of the Obama administration have come out in support of same-sex marriage and allowing Obama space on the subject. However, that will not be good enough for his liberal supporters and enough to use against him by his Republican counterparts. The president should do both sides a favor and come out of the closet, so to speak, and kill the suspicion.

The White House held firm on Monday to that position, which polls show puts the president increasingly at odds with his party and the majority of Americans on gay marriage. But with Biden and Duncan’s comments reinvigorating the debate, Obama is likely to face renewed pressure to clarify his views ahead of the November election.

Throughout his first term, he has sought to walk a fine line on same-sex marriage. He’s trying to satisfy rank-and-file Democrats by supporting a range of gay rights issues without alienating crucial independent voters who could be turned off by the emotional social issue.

The president’s aides acknowledge that his position can be confusing. In states where gay marriage already is legal, the president says married gay couples should have the same rights as married straight couples. But he does not publicly support the right of gay couples to enter into a marriage in the first place.

It is doubtful Obama will fill the urge to support gay-marriage. It would not make a lot of political sense to buck the voters of North Carolina. So he’ll continue to disagree here and there but advocates of gay-marriage will most likely not see the kind of advocate in Obama that he played in 2008. And because of this, there are gigantic holes appearing in Obama’s progressive message.

CNN’s Jessica Yellin asked whether Obama was trying to “have it both ways before an election” and whether he should “stop dancing around the issue.”

ABC’s Jake Tapper said that “it seems cynical to hide this prior to the election” and that “I don’t want to hear the same talking points 15 times in a row.”

NBC’s Chuck Todd said with a grin, “So help me out here. He opposes bans on gay marriage, but he doesn’t yet support gay marriage?”

The pounding was so intense that radio personality Les Kinsolving, a gadfly who tries to ask the most outrageous question at briefings, was being overlooked. Midway through the briefing, he appeared to pass out, sliding to the floor. As he was being helped to a seat, Kinsolving called out, “I just have one question!”

Carney tried to parry the same-sex-marriage questions, gamely at first and then testily as reporters began to laugh at his answers. He grew uncharacteristically flustered. When an unrelated question came about whether Obama would support the reelection of scandal-plagued Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), Carney answered: “I mean — well, yes, sure. I just don’t — I haven’t — I haven’t been asked it before so I. . . . The president — I’ll have to — I’ll have to get back to you.”

Posted in American Politics, American Society | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Federalist Papers Are, Like, Over A Hundred Years Old!

Posted on May 7, 2012 by

One would think the best way for maintaining our republic would be to teach on the founding documents that helped create it. Unfortunately, many college text books would rather talk of the thing such as the “colonial mind;” fast forward to the Civil War and devote a whole chapter to abolitionists. The latter of course sets the stage for the progressive movement of the early 19th century, which is exactly where so many in academia like to concentrate.

Everything before that were the dark ages of our republic. Everything after that can be rewritten and retaught.

But what of graduate and law schools? It’s hardly better there, too.

Most astonishing and most revealing is the neglect of The Federalist by graduate schools and law schools. The political science departments at Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Stanford and Berkeley—which set the tone for higher education throughout the nation and train many of the next generation’s professors—do not require candidates for the Ph.D. to study The Federalist. And these universities’ law schools (Princeton has no law school), which produce many of the nation’s leading members of the bar and bench, do not require their students to read, let alone master, The Federalist’s major ideas and main lines of thought. . . the progressive ideology that dominates our universities teaches that The Federalist, like all books written before the day before yesterday, is antiquated and irrelevant.

Unbelievable considering that the Federalist Papers are the actual thoughts of many of the founders who either helped write the constitution (Madison) or formed our government (take your pick).

Posted in American Society | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Taliban Strength Linked to Obama’s Secretive ‘Strategic Release’ Policy?

Posted on May 7, 2012 by

President Obama recently visited Afghanistan and addressed the nation and coalition troops by saying, “in the pre-dawn darkness of Afghanistan, we can see the light of a new day on the horizon.” Wonderful and lofty words if only the actual circumstances matched the rhetoric. In fact, the only ones who may have taken President Obama’s words to heart is the Taliban.

A recent fact finding mission headed up by (D) Senator Diane Feinstein and (R) Congressman Mike Rogers, both of whom are the leaders of Congress’ intelligence committees, brought back with them the conclusion that the Taliban has grown stronger in Afghanistan since Obama took office. This comes a great surprise considering that Obama ordered an additional 33,000 troops back in 2010.

So what gives? Enter a Washington Post story that says the Obama administration has been engaging in a secretive deal, with minimal oversight, by releasing notorious Taliban fighters from special military prisons on the promise they give up fighting and accept peace.

KABUL — The United States has for several years been secretly releasing high-level detainees from a military prison in Afghanistan as part of negotiations with insurgent groups, a bold effort to quell violence but one that U.S. officials acknowledge poses substantial risks. As the United States has unsuccessfully pursued a peace deal with the Taliban, the “strategic release” program has quietly served as a live diplomatic channel, allowing American officials to use prisoners as bargaining chips in restive provinces where military power has reached its limits.

But the releases are an inherent gamble: The freed detainees are often notorious fighters who would not be released under the traditional legal system for military prisoners in Afghanistan. They must promise to give up violence — and U.S. officials warn them that if they are caught attacking American troops, they will be detained once again.

There are no absolute guarantees, however, and officials would not say whether those who have been released under the program have later returned to attack U.S. and Afghan forces once again.

This follows closely the script of Obama’s method since becoming president. He uses media to portray a decisive leader who is only focused on practical results. However, his actual policies often contradict that persona. He does this often and does it without cracking a smile. Afghanistan was an issue that he was actually able to run to right of McCain and the GOP. He delivered by authorizing a sizable military surge. It was lauded by the left as a move that showed Obama’s ability to gamble political capital. It showed the rest that just maybe Obama was serious about closing out the war with real results. Quickly, though, it was revealed later that the surge had several limitations.

As stated in the excerpt, this policy, too, has limitations if not disastrous results. How exactly is our military tracking "success" stories? If the prisoners are released doesn’t their oath to jihad and few other talents other than mayhem make this all wishful thinking? If this is the best we can do, if we have taken any and all possible military outcomes off the table than what exactly is our mission over there?

Maybe this is the often spoken about "Smart Power" as Paul Mirengoff at Power Line explains.

Not only did we notify the other side in advance of the limits of our resolve, we have provided ongoing reassurance of it by releasing the most committed captured enemy fighters — those important enough to make lists provided by the putative enemy.

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