Contrary to popular belief, President Obama’s victory in 2012 was not a result of a shifting demographic trend in the United States. Accordingly, it resulted from the Democrat’s aptitude for effectively organizing and mobilizing increased voter turnout among populations which are favorable to their cause. Additionally, this fact combined with Republican campaigning lethargy and their failure to connect their candidate with the appropriate voters, let a golden opportunity for victory slip through their fingers.
Let’s explore some data which highlights this presumption. Below is a graph which illustrates the citizen voting-age population of the United States by race and their participation levels in national elections from 2000-12.
Fig-1
Source: Census Bureau, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2000-12.
As you can see for every election up to and including the 2006 congressional; voter turnout among Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics perform at reasonably steady levels. For the most part Whites have the highest turnout rates as a percentage of citizen voting-age population (CVAP) with Blacks second and Hispanics third. However, in the 2008 general election, Black CVAP jumped to an all-time high—64.7%–almost matching White turnout. Meanwhile, Hispanic/Latino involvement, while ticking up slightly to 49.9%, remained generally consistent with historical trends.
In the 2012 general, however, the CVAP among racial demographics took a different turn. White constituencies had their lowest turnout for a presidential contest, dropping an average of 6.6 points from previous years. Furthermore and for the first time, the Black community actually surpassed White voter turnout levels by almost four points. Additionally, Hispanic/Latino showing jumped up almost six points from the preceding year.
This evidence does not suggest a demographic shift in the sense that minority voters have reached a point in which singularly or in combination they will overtake the white voter majority anytime soon. What it does show however, is that if White voter turnout is depressed, as it was in 2012, the Democrats can effectively energize minority constituencies, a very dependable liberal voting bloc, to close the gap and eventually control election outcomes.
Nevertheless, while these events are significant, they do not adequately answer the question why the GOP lost a very winnable election?
How They Broke-
According to exit polling data here is how each demographic broke for the candidates.
Sources: David Leip’s Atlas of US Presidential Elections, 2012 Presidential General Election Results. AP, 2012 election exit poll shows voter demographics.
Interestingly even if turnout among all the racial demographics remained the same but there were emollient shifts in their voting patterns, the results of the 2012 election cycle would have been rather different.
Realistically though, you could play with these percentages in a countless number of ways in order to demonstrate how Romney could have won the election, but the bottom line is that Obama won and no amount of number shifting will alter that fact. The point is just to illustrate how close the GOP was to an actual victory despite the narrative permeating the minds of some “pundits” that we now live in “Liberal America.” What we live in is a world in which Democrats adapted their campaign and micro-targeting techniques and are willing to do the hard-work it takes to secure electoral victories. The GOP on the other hand gives the impression that they feel entitled to victory without having to perform any of the difficult legwork and procedural optimization required in a 21st century political world.
Remedies-
There are no easy answers to the GOP dilemma but there are a few things to keep in mind. This election cycle was a testament to the lack of GOP outreach to demographics that presently do not vote Republican. Even if the most of modest attempts were made to connect with these voters, it could have made a difference in closing such a minute gap.
The point is that most of the voter’s impressions of the Right are initiated by Democrats and their surrogates, there seems to be very little messaging or outreach done by GOP operatives in these areas. Obviously when your rival dictates the terms of your image, it’s pretty much a guarantee that how they brand you will be anything less than favorable. Republicans do not have to capture all of these voters; in fact they don’t even have to capture a significant portion. But, they do need to start performing reasonably better with demographics other than Whites.
It is imperative that the GOP start hitting the Democrats in their own historical enclaves, urban America. Thankfully it seems that some conservatives like Paul Ryan are actually recognizing the importance of this fact.
Finally, failure is usually comprehensive; there are other features of the campaign which contributed to Romney’s loss. Gaffes, inconsistency, connection with the constituency, authenticity, etc. are all factors that need to be considered also. If the GOP wants to do some soul searching then by all means fine, but it also better perform a serious mental evaluation on itself as well. Because if they continue with the same old tired campaign approaches then the Left’s predictions of impending GOP implosion will turn from a prognostication into a self-fulfilling one.
(Please Note: The CVAP data from 2000-04 appearing in Fig-1 had to be re-calculated due to the fact that prior to the Census Bureau measured voter participation by the total population which included non-citizens. After 2006 however, voter participation was measured by the total citizen population and data preceding this was adjusted accordingly based on additional information provided by the Census Bureau.)
Related articles
- WISE: Republicans lost the ground game (washingtontimes.com)
- Understand first, then aim (legalinsurrection.com)
- GOP turnout: myths and reality (hotair.com)
There are a couple of variables in play here. Massive voter fraud and half of the voters being on the dole…
Good blog, though a big item is missing and the blog assumes voting only occurs via racial lines. The biggest decider of the election wasn’t turn-out, it was ideology. The Republican platform was divisive and the messages for the past two years were vitriolic. Yes, the Democrats worked to define Mitt Romney early, but he (and other GOP’ers) did a great job of fanning that flame themselves. Examples include 47% comment, Cong. Ryan’s plan to cut to social support programs, trying to redefine rape. Worst of all are the flip-flops Gov. Romney was caught in (abortion…) These comments placed the GOP at odds with many in the electorate. The “outreach” argument is not genuine, it’s code for “let’s get their vote without advocating for what they want”.
NewEnlgand-It is not assumed that voting takes place along racial lines but the cultural lines which each race represents. Nor is “outreach” code for anything except exposure by minority constituencies to a different philosophy other than the Democratic one.
You have two people running for captain of the block party that is to be held in your neighborhood, the job requires organizing games and activities for all the kids.
One candidate has been running a catering company and party planning business for 20 years, the other has been attempting to run a local novelty and magic shop that he was given to him by his grandmother. it is not doing well due to inexperience of business practices, but the block party will give him the boost needed to get a loan at the bank.
The first candidate is a kindly old man that has always lived on the block and been a good neighbor, the second has only been there a short while and has yet to contribute, or attend any block functions.
The candidates both have the means to do the job, although the first one has shown his ability over many years, the second is popular because he has been doing magic tricks on the sidewalk and the kids love him.
There are two men that live on the block, they work at the bank the second candidate is negotiating with, they are also single men, who have no children.
The two men think they will gain from the magic shop business at the bank, they also know the magic shop candidate has a history of molesting children.
The two men, being childless, decide to remain quiet about the candidates molestation history and he wins as block captain in charge of the party.
The party happens, the food is pretty bad, the fireworks are mostly duds, the block captain seems to have left early, leaving others to clean up the mess.
The next morning, little Jimmy, a six year old from the area cannot be found, the block captain, looking disheveled and nervous, claims he will “focus like a laser” on finding the boy – then goes back in the house.
Little Jimmy`s remains are found years later.
The magic shop is long bankrupt and abandoned, the owner gone.
The moral of the story?
The media is an enemy of this great Country.
It is time they were held to account for what they refuse to report.
Massive voter fraud, too many people being on the dole, and liberal media bias? Excuse me gentlemen and with all due respect those sound more like excuses for the Right’s failures rather than real obstacles and sabotage preventing them from victory.
Republican leadership acts like they are entitled to victory versus following their own supposed mantra of hard work to achieve goals. You can’t campaign against the Left by just saying the Left sucks and offer nothing substantial as an alternative. This is intellectually lazy. There is a difficult road ahead for the GOP and if they don’t dig a little deeper and quit pouting, they will become as irrelevant as the Democrats predict.
There is a vast expanse between media bias and actively manipulating news of national security and documented corruption in the expending of federal taxpayer dollars, just to name a couple of examples.
The press is named in the Constitution for protection – to knowingly misuse that in ways that can actually harm the Country is criminal.
It`s time to call them out with the same intensity that was shown in 2010 for the mid terms.
That well may be true Rick. But the argument you are offering is about a completely unrelated topic–Benghazi I am assuming. This has little to do with the GOP’s lack of creative thinking, modernizing political strategy, and hooking up with right-leaning grassroots organizations such as the Tea Party in order to create an effective ground game. As much as we need to be holding the Left and the media accountable for the actions we also need to be holding the Right’s collective asses to the fire for their inadequacies as well.
Mike, I agree wholeheartedly about holding the GOP to account – They, with very few exceptions should be run the hell out.
I disagree that Benghazi is an unrelated issue. An informed voter makes choices based on facts, if those facts are withheld simply to get your guy elected, that is trading the security of the Country for personal gain – be it monetary, stature, or simply evil, there is no defense. Americans will make the right choice – if they are informed.
That it has been going on a long time shames us, not them.
I`ve had enough and we have a couple years time on our hands to try to correct some of it.
Well said, Rick!
We’ve been all over this on Common Cents here:
http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/11/final-2012-presidential-election.html
here:
http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/11/some-good-news-from-2012-election-for.html
and here:
http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/11/hey-state-controlled-media-country-is.html