At some point tonight America will be told they have a new president. The 45th president of the United States will be Mitt Romney.
The historical whirlwinds and anecdotal evidence is favorable for a challenger’s year. Romney has distinguished himself far more than a challenger. He’s proven himself to be a viable alternative to President Obama and that is the only reason considering the circumstances, the majority of voters need.
As for the hard numbers, they back these claims. Obama is stuck somewhere between 46 and 48 percent on every issue. That includes his personal likability. Obama receives anywhere from 52 to 54 percent in disapproval on almost every major issue. Conversely, Romney finds himself over 50 percent on all these issues. (Please check my archives as I have went to much greater detail than I am going into here). Bottom line: Obama will not outperform these numbers.
Considering these factors, and many more, Romney will win as his numbers suggest. I’m giving Romney a margin victory of at least 5 points. I’ll say likely by 52 percent to 47 percent. But if Republican enthusiasm and turnout goes as being forecasted, Romney could win this thing 53 to 46 percent.
This will mean a few things. Romney will likely sweep the competitive states and pick up a state or two inside Obama’s firewall. That’s exactly what will happen.
Romney will win Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. In addition to these states, Romney will win Wisconsin and either Michigan, Minnesota, or Pennsylvania. My personal take is he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania.
So in summary, Romney wins the popular vote 52 (or 53) to 47 (or 46) percent. Additionally, Romney wins the Electoral College with a total at 301 or upwards to 321 EVs.