In his latest post, Jason concentrated on the significance of the elusive undecided voters among other factors which might indicate a potential Romney victory.
Approximately 96 percent of the likely voters have made up their minds long ago. They don’t need convincing. Roughly half that number is for Obama (47), and the remaining is for Romney (49). The remaining 4 percent will base their choice on whether if Romney is a viable alternative to Obama, and not whether who they would necessarily like in the White House for the next four years. These lone holdouts are the consummate, asterisk-mark swing voters. [...]
I couldn’t agree more.
However, there is another equally important factor which might contribute to a Romney win and that is turnout.
Nate Cohen over at the New Republic offers an opposite thesis to Jason which de-emphasizes the importance of undecideds and relies solely on the turnout model as the main determinant for who will victorious on November 6th. I do not share Cohen’s belief that undecideds don’t matter, I believe they do. However, I do also believe that turnout of the candidates’ supporters will have a larger and much broader impact on the national side.
With this in mind a poll released by Pew on the 29th, indicates that the potential turnout favors Romney.
As in many previous elections, turnout measures appear to favor the Republican candidate. In the poll, more of Mitt Romney’s than Barack Obama’s supporters say they are highly engaged and certain to vote. By a four-point margin, Romney supporters say they have given a lot of thought to the election (82% vs. 78%). Similarly, 66% of those voting for Romney say they have been following the campaign very closely. Fewer of Obama’s supporters (60%) say this. And 88% of Romney supporters say they will definitely vote, compared with 83% for the president. [...]
Putting all of this together means that the winning formula for Romney will be a significant portion of the relatively small pool of undecided voters breaking for the former Governor in the right swing-states, combined with a higher percentage of Romney supporters showing up at the polls overall. If this takes place, it will be the political straws which will have figuratively broke the Obama campaign’s back.
- Why voter turnout in 2012 is likely to be down (washingtonpost.com)
- Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge (realclearpolitics.com)