In his latest post, Jason concentrated on the significance of the elusive undecided voters among other factors which might indicate a potential Romney victory.
From Jason,
Approximately 96 percent of the likely voters have made up their minds long ago. They don’t need convincing. Roughly half that number is for Obama (47), and the remaining is for Romney (49). The remaining 4 percent will base their choice on whether if Romney is a viable alternative to Obama, and not whether who they would necessarily like in the White House for the next four years. These lone holdouts are the consummate, asterisk-mark swing voters. [...]
I couldn’t agree more.
However, there is another equally important factor which might contribute to a Romney win and that is turnout.
Nate Cohen over at the New Republic offers an opposite thesis to Jason which de-emphasizes the importance of undecideds and relies solely on the turnout model as the main determinant for who will victorious on November 6th. I do not share Cohen’s belief that undecideds don’t matter, I believe they do. However, I do also believe that turnout of the candidates’ supporters will have a larger and much broader impact on the national side.
With this in mind a poll released by Pew on the 29th, indicates that the potential turnout favors Romney.
As in many previous elections, turnout measures appear to favor the Republican candidate. In the poll, more of Mitt Romney’s than Barack Obama’s supporters say they are highly engaged and certain to vote. By a four-point margin, Romney supporters say they have given a lot of thought to the election (82% vs. 78%). Similarly, 66% of those voting for Romney say they have been following the campaign very closely. Fewer of Obama’s supporters (60%) say this. And 88% of Romney supporters say they will definitely vote, compared with 83% for the president. [...]
Putting all of this together means that the winning formula for Romney will be a significant portion of the relatively small pool of undecided voters breaking for the former Governor in the right swing-states, combined with a higher percentage of Romney supporters showing up at the polls overall. If this takes place, it will be the political straws which will have figuratively broke the Obama campaign’s back.
Related articles
- Why voter turnout in 2012 is likely to be down (washingtonpost.com)
- Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge (realclearpolitics.com)
Interesting read – I think the effect of Superstorm Sandy and Obama’s ‘Presidential’ fortitude over the past few days will do him more good than any campaign event. Romney remains as incoherent and irrelevant on yet another issue, as usual. Check my thoughts: http://goo.gl/FNOyM
Tommy,
what you think and what the polls show force me to go with the numbers.
Jas,
Interested in your thoughts on the enthusiasm driving the turnout models.
They are there as evident from early voting. I did mention the high turnout that is expected in my piece and the drop off in Dem support from 2008. You are right, it will help Romney. More importantly it will help him win a state he isn’t supposed to much like Obama in 2008 with states such as Indiana, NC, and Florida.
This time around Romney may win Minn, or Penn, or Michigan. That’s where the voter turnout will matter.
I was trying to assume this already in my piece and see what how the undecided would impact the election based on national numbers. They’ll more than like give Romney 2.5 percent, which will put him at 52 or 53 as I said. With 53 percent of the national vote, Romney is guaranteed a victory in one of those states.
Nice follow up, by the way.
Comment deleted due to its complete irrelevance to the post, ineptitude in holding a valid political conversation, and reducing the debate to meaningless name-calling.
Obama-lib out and about?
I actually wouldn’t insult one of the the President’s supporters by comparing them to this D-Bag.
dang! must have been a live one. I’m always late to the party. I just got home!
Hardly smart enough to be called a live one either. Lol.