If you compile your own list of presidential approval ratings during these election years, yours may differ from mine. All of these numbers have been pulled from Gallup‘s archive. Depending on which month of the election year you choose, the numbers may slightly differ from mine but not by much. I went with the latest polling Gallup offered in that election year and averaged out the two previous polls in order to give the most relevant number. Where Obama’s number is concerned, I went with the latest number according to Gallup.
Even with this small window of time, a trend develops. A president is considered in the danger zone at 40 percent approval. Obama is currently slightly higher but not even to the level of W. Bush, who at this time was polling between 48 and 50 percent and still faced a close reelection. The only thing we can say for certain according to the graph is that anything over 50 is certain victory, while anything below 40 percent is certain defeat. That isn’t exactly a mind blowing proposition but it does say that Obama can make history either way. He could either be the first incumbent since 1980 to win reelection with the lowest approval rating or the first incumbent since 1980 to lose with the highest approval rating. Either way, there is nothing encouraging about his numbers.
Accompanying Obama’s approval rating is the economy, a point that more are starting to connect the two together. Obama has been getting bad scores on the economy for several weeks. A sure sign that a majority of voters will, at least, question the wisdom of another Obama term. Throw in the mix a legitimate contending ticket with Romney/Ryan who are suggesting the very opposite of what Obama has done during his first term, and are out raising him financially, and Obama’s numbers look too low at this point for a win in November.