Author and political scientist, George Friedman, theorizes that Mexico is a coming world power this century, and America isn’t close to being finished. In fact, he predicts another Golden Age for the U.S. He sees the social and economic conditions crippling China and could potentially throw it off its fast track of a rising superpower. He also predicts another stand off — a Cold War like struggle between the U.S. and Russia. (photo from Latin Travel Mall)
News Max: “Intelligence Expert: China Faces Chaos in Coming Decades While Mexico Will Be World Power”
“Mexico is already the world’s 13th largest economy,” Friedman told Newsmax’s Ashley Martella.
“It has over a trillion dollars GDP. It has 100 million people. It is a great power. And as it develops, and it is developing at a dramatically fast rate, we will see it emerging later in the century as one of the top powers in the world…
“People have, I think, a lagging perception of a lot of countries, and Mexico is not what it used to be.”
Martella noted that Friedman has predicted China will undergo a major extended internal crisis and asked: “To what extent, and has it already begun?”
“That crisis certainly has begun,” Friedman responded.
“We have to remember that China is a Third World country. Of the 1.3 billion people in China, over a billion of those live in standards of living that are Third World. A very thin layer of China is what Westerners look at when we look at this economic expansion, which has been extraordinary.
“China depends on exports. It is an extension of the American economy. When the Americans catch cold, China catches pneumonia. And when China catches pneumonia, when exports slow down, people are thrown out of work.
On America’s future Fridman says:
“I see a situation in which American power will continue to grow,” Friedman said.
“The United States has been expanding dramatically since 1870. It is the one country in the world that has systematically, in every decade, increased its power by any measure that you look at. We see that intensifying.”
Friedman predicts the U.S. will also enter “a new energy age” in the second half of this century. With the hydrocarbon age ending, America will use its control of space to place solar collectors in orbit, which will beam back energy to earth in the form of microwaves and “turn the United States into a super Saudi Arabia. In other words, it will be a country that not only controls space but utilizes it for driving the economies of the earth.”
The Mexico prediction is a far cry from what was released just last month claiming that Mexico was in serious danger of collapsing from its internal struggles with the violent drug cartels. I’m assuming he thinks this will be resolved? Who knows exactly but it is very interesting and, if you take him at his word, it can be seen as plausible. However, a few quick searches reveals otherwise. I just hope they don’t ask for the southwest back…
I wrote a little piece on China’s possible collapse and see that as a very real possibility. Feeding, employing, and keeping 1.3 billion people content is a very daunting task even for a centralized one-party state. Throw in the global recession and that spells disaster.
Interesting that I didn’t see Canada or India. Canada, if it chooses to exert itself and stops mirroring its European siblings, could be a formidable economic and military power.
As for America…why not? So long as we curb out political dysfunction and prevent the culture wars from further dividing a seemingly socially and morally parting country.
Canada? It doesn’t have enough people. India? If think China is a third world country, India is the same, but with sectarian splits that could become civil war with the right spark. Could anything like the Mumbai attacks occur in China at the present time?
Mexico is likely not going to be a world power, but Brazil? They might pull it off. They almost made their own atomic bomb.
You are right about the population in Canada, and I should have added that. But, they have tons of natural resources including oil. They have a lot they haven’t had the need to tap into. They can be a world power through wealth and technology. You don’t need a million man army to get things done. Look up Canada’s expected growth this century. It may surprise you.
Mr. Friedman did not learn or did not care to remember his history, not a good thing for a political “scientist”.
The Spanish heritage has proven devastating for the advance of civilizations, as the South and Central Americas have proven.
Even Argentina, with its advantages in geography and population, cannot and will not get out of its own way.
Mexico has given little hint of change, and lately anything but. That any success exist there is due to their proximity to the American border.
Friedman is onto something. Mexico may never be a superpower, but the ingredients for a super economic power are definitely there. That’s why the opponents of NAFTA have it all wrong – in the long run, locking ourselves in with Mexico is going to pay big economic dividends.
Mexico has some very serious problems – crime and corruption foremost – but all of them could be solved with sufficent capital, political will, and ingenuity. I don’t see that happening in the next ten years, but in the next hundred years? Plausible, even probable.
Gee, I don’t know about this Mexico thing. The contrast between Friedman’s prognosis and that intelligence estimate are too great too ignore. I agree that Mexico is not a 3rd world country anymore, but the poster above who says that some Latin American countries can’t get out of their own way is correct.
The real clincher for me that makes Friedman’s projections bogus is this “new age of energy” thing with giant solar power satellites. I happened to have been at the birth of the Gerry O’Neill vision that Friedam is echoing here, and I believe his notions about energy technology are naive, even if projected into the second half ot the century.
Eric Blair, Mexico is way developed than Brazil and has more real quota of power in institutions like the IMF or the World Bank, plus is the biggest trade power of Latin America, way bigger than Brazil. Mexicans have a higher per capita than brazilians… Brazil thing is just propaganda… better take a look to Mexico vs Brazil numbers… and you will find that Mexico is a true emerging power. It only lacks of political will and that propaganda machina like that of Brazil.
better read this serious study on how Mexico is to become a REAL world power in this century and is true, no science fiction… http://www.chicagobooth.edu/alumni/clubs/pakistan/docs/next11dream-march%20%2707-goldmansachs.pdf
I am Mexican. I go to Mexico every year. I know that Mexico has a great chance of becoming a world power. Right now the government is fighting the drug cartels. But its only in the border and the drug cartels get millions of dollars…not millions but perhaps billions in money and weaponry. The government keep the weapons and money. The drug cartels are actually making Mexico richer by taking the money from all the pot heads in this country and is currently using around 60 to 70 thousand soldiers not even a twentieth of their military and they are giving a hard time to the cartels. Its even funny how I see the Mexican news and i always see how they confiscate rpg’s, grenades, current U.S. used military weapons and that the Government keeps this crap. Last week they confiscated a shipment of 150 M4A1 assault rifles, 30 cases of grenades, 19 rpg’s, some vehicle mounted machine guns and some other explosives. I’m very surprised how these da** cartels get all this s#!+. I think this country is also corrupt in the weapons that go through. How the f*** do you get this stuff. Well this proves that the country is capable, but is gets me mad because last week the soldiers went searching houses with x-ray vision equipment and they took some guns from all over my town and they took my dads .380 special. It was a collectible revolver. But at least they are getting there. One problem with the country is that the f**ken Mexicans need to stay in the country. They are feeding the U.S. economy. Well I hope this issue with the drugs go down
P.S Mexico is not all that dangerous as it seems.
Mexico = Crap
Mexico’s Government = Drug Cartels
Mexico is dominated by US (politics, economy, sports and everything that comes to mind)
Mexico IS dangerous
Mexico will NEVER reach the”World Power” status.
so… Mexico is FAKE!!!
Sorry my fellows “cucarachas” mexiscums, but USA will dominate your poor third world country FOREVER!!!!
u dumb piece of shit. who ever the hell Lean is a stupid bastard for talking shit about our country. Get the hell out of here u dumb redneck. Mexico can be a world power ur just jealous.Dont act like the US isnt crap either because they r. They have a corrupt government so that makes the US crap too.Probably you havent been to mexico because it is a million times better than america
Easy folks. Hammer out your disagreements in another way. Thanks.
Fellas, the key to critical thinking is to avoid bias and taking party. Despite Lean’s poor choice of language and hateful comments, he has a point: Mexico is dominated by the US. But hey, so is every other country in Latin America. The US is in effect, an empire. However, remember that empires rise and fall, and that makes the rise of Mexico possible.
Mexico has potential. But she has a very long way to go. Admittedly or not it’s still pretty much a 3rd world country. It’s current GDP per capita is $13,800 U.S., which puts Mexico 84th in the world, along side nations like Libya, Uruquay, Botswana and Lebanon. The cartel violence, murders and mass killings, in parts of Mexico are certainly what you’d see in countries where law and order is breaking down…like a 3rd world nation. The Mexican people deserve better. But their government is failing them in many ways.
I don’t see Mexico becoming a world power anytime soon. Our relationship with Mexico is important and we certainly need to work closely with the Mexican government to help bring about positive change in Mexico. Of first importance is stamping out the Mexican drug cartels and getting control of the border.
Luis – Yes, America has her problems. Many. But they don’t approximate those of Mexico’s currently.
Jeff, you are right. Mexico won’t be a world power anytime soon. But this is exactly what Friedman has said. Friedman said that Mexico will emerge as a world power by the END of this century. The cartels generate millions upon millions of dollars, and when Mexican federal agents confiscate this, guess where it ends up? It is “cleansed” and put into the Mexican economy. If Mexico manages to not become a failed state and overcomes the cartels, the drug war will have proven to be a great thing to have happened to the Mexican economy because billions of “cleansed” dollars will have been added that were confiscated from cartels. Like Friedman said, people have a lagging idea of what Mexico is. People back in the 1950s would have laughed at the idea that countries like South Korea and Israel could be anything other than 3rd world shitholes. But look how things have changed. Mexico has coasts along the Carribean and the Pacific (it has one of the longest pacific coastlines), meaning it has a great maritime/naval potential like the USA. Mexico’s richest man (who’s also the world’s rtichest man), Carlos Slim, has begun to give money to fund new technologies in Mexico, such as a nationwide high speed train system that will interconnect Mexico’s major cities (this will be the fastest high speed rail line in North America and the first outside Europe and East Asia). Mexicans in the US sending remittances back to Mexico has and will also help Mexico’s economy. And finally, among other things, Mexico’s annual tourism is also a major source of income for the Mexican economy. Even with Mexico’s safety-related issues, it still ranks as the 10th most visited country in the world (now imagine how high a safe(r) Mexico would rate). Mexico is not a country to be taken lightly, and those who laugh at it today will eat their own words.
Frederic – Interesting and well made points.
I see those comments are merely concentrated in Mexico, people shows deep resentiment about Mexican people. Every time I read any article about Mexico, haters post bias comment, they don’t realize how bad and gross they look; we might be behind in technology compare with the advance countries, but Mexico is one of the most diverse country in ecosystem. It possess the best clime and natural areas with the most diver flora and sea animals in the golf of Mexico and the pacific ocean. If Mexico don’t become a super power in the next 100 years, who cares! This generation would not live to see if that happen. At least Mexico is not an over populated country like China and India. Even Brasil with the highest population in Latin America possess unequal wealth distrubution.
I am Mexican American from Northern California and can say without a doubt as an international business major that Frederic said it best………..”Mexico is not a country to be taken lightly, and those who laugh at it today will eat their own words.” This i can promise you will happen soon!
For all of you that have not lived in Mexico’s Best and Worst places, let me give you a piece of proof points about Friedman’s predictions. I’ve lived in both countries (15 years on each) and I know shit and good about both.
1. Mexico is the number 2 trading partner for America. From tissue paper to cars, Mexico will be become the number 1 trading partner because of its proximity, increasingly educated workforce, and less fess for imports (tax and transportation) than China.
2. During the last 50 years Mexico is changing faces from a agricultural, textil, and manufacturing enterprise for just American companies, but now it does so for Japanese, European, and Chinese as it seems more cost-effective to manufacture good and provide services from Mexico to the U.S. than from any other part of the world.
3. Mexico is now the number 13th economy of the world. It’s GDP has surpassed the $15,000 and it is predicted that will surpass the $30,000 GDP by 2050.
4. Mexico has also started is heavily investing on the technology industry by developing more engineering and science curriculum for most universities and the emergence of incentive programs.
5. Mexican infrastructure and housing continues to be improved by heavy investment and new building requirements just as in America.
6. Mexico’s middle class is growing at 3% annually. You can see this is cities like Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara, and Puebla.
7.Mexico’s proximity to the U.S. has allowed a new workforce to developed. Most of the northern states (or 15 states) have family ties and English is now very popular among nationals. This has allowed Mexico to become a key player in the service industry.
8.Mexico is building it’s first hydrogen car (UNAM) and first sports car(Mexico City) and plans to build its first mas-production car by the year 2020.
9.Mexico (Carlos slim) has strong ties with Central and South America and is the number 1 supplier of goods and services for these regions.
10. Mexico’s population is growing at 5% rate annually.
11. Mexico is favored by God because it is obeying his will.
God Bless America and Mexico as we are all equal.
P.S. I will not visit this site again, so forget that I will attempt to reply. Thanks
Do not forget “Fast and furius: spansored by the US goverment http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/09/26/us-government-bought-and-sold-weapons-during-fast-and-furious-documents-show/
also the US it has a treaty with the old PRI of the 1960′s where mexicans are not allowed to develope there own automovile industry,like Korea and Japan do,also with this “secret treaty” Mexico it is not allowed to build airplanes and weapons,like Brazil and Chile do,why? may be because the US goverment of those years were afraid of the famous 1950′s “MEXICAN MILAGRO” industrial development
I don’t think Mexico has what’s needed to become a superpower in our lifetimes (I’m Mexican), but I don’t it think should be looking to be one. I think Canda is the United States best friend, Mexico should become the other one, by implementing a system of free trade and less restrictive border rules (like the ones it has with Canda), once Mexico reaches the level of development needed without such thing killing America.
This has already started, the problem is that Mexico practiced a policy of isolationism and “gringo-hate” for a long time. You can still see it on its population, like how a guy here reacted at some dumb, irrational and racist comment, by saying “you’re jealous”. Jealous of what? Mexicans need to get real, there’s barely anything to brag about against the US, that’s the reason why every year over 500,000 of our people are illegally crossing the border. Mexico lost thousands of chances to become a developed nation, America is just a little bit older than Mexico and look at how big the difference is.
Americans still feel nervous and threatened by the Mexican immigration, but they were like this with all kind of immigrants before, until they merge into their society an grow used to them. Illegal immigration should be controlled (and stopped as much as possible) by the United States, because it’s on their best economic interests, but it should improve its management of legal immigrants. Mexico should be concentrating on freeing its local market and improving its trading relation with America (which it has in the last decades), so we can eventually be consider some kind of second Canada, I’m sure Americans would prefer to have another Canada as neighbor, and we will surely prefer to live with Canadian-American standards. Up to some point, Mexico-US-Canda could become a trade zone similar to that of the UN (except that its physical extensions would be a lot larger than the UN’s, which is smaller than the US itself).
The guy above my last comment has no idea whatsoever. He just likes to perpetuate the myth that Mexico is not as developed as it should because of the United States (which serves to hurt our economy).
Mexico lost much of its automobile industry in the 60′s because we established a set of regulations that made many companies left the country. However, from 1994 onward it’s being growing steadily, in fact, Mexico’s automobile industry is the eight largest in the world.
I can assure that the United States wasn’t afraid of the “Mexican Miracle”, which names seems to go on and show how pathetically slow our development has been, such that we need to label those years as a fucking miracle. Chile’s economy has been growing steadily, faster, and for a longer time than our miracle did, do you see the united states afraid of Chile’s development? No. That’s because there not.
Most of our current issues are nobodies fault but our faults.
It seems that most comments here are bout Mexico…… when wwe should really be focussing more on Dr. Friedman’s ideas about China, Japan, Turkey and Poland. A prediction that goes out to the end of the century is really unlikely to be to accurate. That doesn’t mean that Mexico will not become a great power by any means but its not going to become a great power like George Friedman predicted. Pro-Americans must remeber that the US was close to becoming a failed state in the 1920s and that Mexico could prop up itself soon. Pro-Mexicans must remeber a large 30% of Mexicans live under the poverty line and most are just above it.
Its probably more likely that as cultural relations between Mexico and the United States deepen they will probably become – even against their will- more dependant on each other economically and militarily.